Power System Reliability Analysis with Fides: A Breakthrough in Performance 

SUMMARY

Ensuring the reliability of power systems has never been more critical. As grids incorporate increasing amounts of renewable energy, accurate reliability assessment becomes essential to prevent blackouts and ensure economic operation. Traditional reliability assessment tools, while effective, often struggle with computational performance, requiring days to deliver results. Our new tool for power system reliability analysis, Fides, leverages an advanced implementation of Monte Carlo simulation, advanced variance reduction techniques, our proprietary acceleration technology, and cloud-based high-performance computing. With Fides, utilities and grid operators can obtain highly accurate reliability assessments in just minutes. 

The Need for Advanced Reliability Analysis 

Power systems operate under uncertainty, where equipment failures, unexpected demand fluctuations, and intermittent renewable generation can impact reliability. To ensure a secure and cost-effective power supply, utilities rely on probabilistic reliability analysis, which simulates various system states to estimate the likelihood of reliability issues. 

Traditional tools often rely on approximations that reduce computational burdens at the cost of accuracy. Many existing solutions use simplified models, such as load duration curves or a limited selection outage scenarios (N-k), leading to results that may not fully capture all possible system risks. Additionally, due to the vast number of possible system states, Monte Carlo simulation—while powerful—can take several days to run. 

Fides: A New Standard in Reliability Assessment 

Fides addresses these challenges with a highly optimized Monte Carlo simulation framework that integrates advanced variance reduction techniques. This methodology ensures that a representative set of scenarios is generated efficiently, significantly reducing computational burden while maintaining accuracy. The key components of Fides include: 

1. Random Outage Scheduling 

• Fides generates realistic outage schedules for generation, transmission, storage and fuel supply assets. 

• The tool ensures that rare but high-impact contingencies are adequately represented, improving accuracy. 

• It applies advanced variance reduction techniques, among others, Latin Hypercubes Sampling to stratify the generation of random outages. 

2. Security-Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) with Kairos 

• Each outage scenario is simulated using Kairos, our state-of-the-art SCUC model, that respects network security and power generation constraints, ensuring reliable and cost-effective dispatch under uncertainty. 

3. Cloud-Based High-Performance Computing 

• Fides is deployed on the cloud, leveraging distributed computing to handle thousands of simulations in parallel. 

• Our proprietary acceleration technology ensures that results are generated in minutes, not days

Advantages of Fides 

The implementation of Fides provides several key benefits over traditional reliability assessment tools: 

1. Speed Without Compromising Accuracy

While conventional Monte Carlo-based tools can take days to complete, Fides achieves the same level of precision in just minutes. By integrating advanced variance reduction techniques and leveraging cloud computing, the tool efficiently samples critical reliability scenarios while avoiding redundant, low value computations. 

2. More Realistic Reliability Insights

Fides provides a more comprehensive assessment of power system reliability by considering: 

• All credible outages instead of relying on overly simplified models that look to the past and not to the future. 

• Full system constraints, ensuring realistic dispatch decisions in response to contingencies. 

• High renewable penetration scenarios, making it ideal for modern power systems transitioning to cleaner energy sources. 

3. Scalable and Cost-Effective Cloud Deployment

Traditional reliability tools often require specialized local computing infrastructure, leading to high capital costs. Fides eliminates these barriers by utilizing the power of cloud computing, allowing users to scale simulations dynamically based on their needs. This results in:  

• Lower upfront costs for utilities. 

• Flexibility to handle large-scale systems without hardware limitations. 

• Faster iteration cycles, enabling utilities to perform reliability studies more frequently. 

4. Enhanced Decision-Making for Grid Operators

By providing near-instantaneous reliability assessments, Fides empowers grid operators to:  

• Evaluate system resilience under different stress conditions. 

• Make informed investment decisions to enhance reliability. 

• Develop more effective mitigation strategies for system contingencies. 

Real-World Use Case 

Consider a large utility integrating 50+% renewable energy into its grid. Traditional reliability assessments take multiple days to complete, making it difficult for operators to respond to evolving conditions. By adopting Fides, the utility can: 

• Run thousands of outage scenarios in minutes, reaching convergence much faster than traditional tools . 

• Identify weak points in the system and proactively address them. 

• Simulate different renewable energy penetration levels and determine the necessary backup capacity. 

The result? A more resilient, cost-efficient, and sustainable power system. 

Conclusion 

Fides is a new concept in power system reliability analysis, combining state-of-the-art Monte Carlo simulation, variance reduction techniques, security-constrained unit commitment modeling, and cloud-based high-performance computing. By delivering results in minutes rather than days, Fides equips utilities and system operators with the tools needed to ensure grid reliability in an era of increasing uncertainty and renewable integration. 

As power grids continue to evolve, so must the tools used to analyze them. Fides is at the forefront of this transformation, ensuring that decision-makers have access to fast, accurate, and actionable reliability assessments. 

About the authors 

This article was written by Diego Luca de Tena, Managing Director of Pharoes, who is based in Madrid, the author wants to thank Marina García-Bernalt and Nerea Álvarez, former Solutions Analysts of Pharoes, for their contributions to the development of Fides.